Peru’s trade balance will post a record surplus this and next year, a forecast supported by better international prices in 2021 and the increase in exportable supply in 2022, BBVA Research Chief Economist Hugo Perea affirmed on Wednesday.
He pointed out that a positive trade balance of about US$17 billion will be achieved in 2021, while surplus will reach more than US$18 billion in 2022, due to greater mining production.
“Additionally, dollarization of private portfolios in Peru maintains pressure over the exchange rate,” he stated at the presentation of the Peru Situation report.
The economist remarked that this scenario helps reduce Peru’s exposure to financial turmoil —which may occur in global markets — and the need for external financing.
“In fact, we expect a surplus in the current account, as well as a decline in the medium and long-term private sector external debt,” the BBVA Research officer expressed.
In this context, BBVA foresees that the exchange rate will fluctuate between S/3.90 and S/4.00 per U.S. dollar in the remainder of this year.
“Uncertainty is still high under the current scenario. Nevertheless, if authorities show signs of confidence with consistent policies, the scenario can surely be more benign,” Perea affirmed.
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